She Really Doesn't Know Politics, or Elections.

 It's like watching some old, frail, but not some one you like much, lady fall down, after she said something rude and obnoxious, and totally uncalled for, to some child.  

The Owl is at it again. Not having a clue how little she understands what she is talking about.  But to set the baseline.  Years ago.  When regulars over at bloggingheads.com used to ask her on.  Which has not happened in years and years.  In this one comical appearance, she admitted she really knew nothing about politics.  And then started talking about politics. 

Getting current.  She is as of today, saying the people who run the website 538 deserve more trust on the question of Biden's chances of winning, than his own insiders.  Because incoherent, and or magical thinking reasons? 

Specifically, the Owl has been on this bent, where she acts as if she has the powers of the mysterious and fictional character known as . . . The Shadow.  Who it was said, could read into the hearts of men.  Or maybe she believes she can read minds?  In any way.  She is sounding more and more like crazy old lady in the park, or on the bus, who just happens to know the real truth about everything!  And will tell you.  Whether you want to hear it or not!

Ok. Before I deconstruct her magical thinking conclusions. The data is that there currently is, for all intents and purposes, meaning within a standard polling margin of error, a statistical tie between Biden and bozo.  Even some of Biden's own staffers interpret that (and we must assume along with data points they have that 538 doesn't,) to mean Biden can't win.  She trusts 538's stastical dead head more?

Anyway.  Deconstruction time.

538 is using external polling, and running scenarios based on that limited kind and source of data.

The Biden campaign has that data, and given how modern campaigns with money operate, their own internal polling.  On top of that, they have data regarding support from national, state, and local democratic officials.  And some of that is data those other officials are getting from constituents.  Perhaps raw.  Perhaps not at all from a controlled process. But it's actual data from actual constituents.

Lastly and perhaps more importantly. They have real time real live data about how far Biden has slipped in his functioning.  And whether it's accelerating?

They have more data.  They have more kinds of data. And they are worried.

But the Owl doesn't trust them. Because she can read their minds.  She has magical powers.  She thinks.